1 Comment

Thanks for your insightful post, Fabian. I think consensus came into this year expecting flat equities and strong gains for bonds so positioning has been caught out by recent strong gains outside of the US - the lagged rate hiking and inflation cycle in Europe and China reopening story will play out at least 1H this year I think. The historical evidence on a 60/40 portfolio delivering a 2nd consecutive year of negative returns is almost zero (happened in Great Depression) so it’s a really high bar to beat!

Expand full comment