(This comment was written before US CPI was published) Remember December 21, 2012? That day was supposed to end the world (again). Though, like all prophecies about the end of the world, it did not happen. The people who thought the world was ending referred to the Maya calendar. December 21, 2012, ended the 13th cycle of the four-hundred-year calendar, and the Maya marked this day in their calendar. However, the idea that this meant the end of the world was coming emerged later, during the modern ages, according to scientists.
Thanks for your insightful post, Fabian. I think consensus came into this year expecting flat equities and strong gains for bonds so positioning has been caught out by recent strong gains outside of the US - the lagged rate hiking and inflation cycle in Europe and China reopening story will play out at least 1H this year I think. The historical evidence on a 60/40 portfolio delivering a 2nd consecutive year of negative returns is almost zero (happened in Great Depression) so it’s a really high bar to beat!