The consensus now seems to be that there is a 50-50 chance that the economy late this year or in 1974 will slide into a moderate landing– Morgan Guaranty Trust Survey, September 1973 – quoted from the NYT The first issuance of state debt in the United States marked a significant milestone in its financial history, playing a crucial role in shaping its economic foundation. On December 5, 1791, the fledgling US government, under the leadership of Secretary of the Treasury Alexander Hamilton, initiated the issuance of federal bonds. This historic event unfolded in response to the pressing need to establish the financial stability of the newly formed nation.
It is remarkable how mainstream the soft-landing story has become, especially given the history that shows it is a highly infrequent event. certainly, Friday's NFP data was a positive for the soft-landing thesis, but it would seem not so positive for the 125bps of rate cuts.
to my mind, 125bps is the least likely outcome where we either get a token 25 or 50 throughout 2024 or we get 350-400 as a full-blown recession shows up.
It is remarkable how mainstream the soft-landing story has become, especially given the history that shows it is a highly infrequent event. certainly, Friday's NFP data was a positive for the soft-landing thesis, but it would seem not so positive for the 125bps of rate cuts.
to my mind, 125bps is the least likely outcome where we either get a token 25 or 50 throughout 2024 or we get 350-400 as a full-blown recession shows up.