The consensus now seems to be that there is a 50-50 chance that the economy late this year or in 1974 will slide into a moderate landing– Morgan Guaranty Trust Survey, September 1973 – quoted from the NYT
It is remarkable how mainstream the soft-landing story has become, especially given the history that shows it is a highly infrequent event. certainly, Friday's NFP data was a positive for the soft-landing thesis, but it would seem not so positive for the 125bps of rate cuts.
to my mind, 125bps is the least likely outcome where we either get a token 25 or 50 throughout 2024 or we get 350-400 as a full-blown recession shows up.
It is remarkable how mainstream the soft-landing story has become, especially given the history that shows it is a highly infrequent event. certainly, Friday's NFP data was a positive for the soft-landing thesis, but it would seem not so positive for the 125bps of rate cuts.
to my mind, 125bps is the least likely outcome where we either get a token 25 or 50 throughout 2024 or we get 350-400 as a full-blown recession shows up.