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Dec 3, 2023Liked by Fabian Wintersberger

I believe it is important to remember that Claudia Sahm is also arguing a political point. She is a notable left leaning economist and trying to make the case to offset the current negative perceptions with data. It does not surprise me that she chose a starting point to flatter the analysis at all.

That said, I would argue the widespread negativity is more likely a function, not of the fact that CPI last month was 3.0%, but that the price level is 20% higher than prior to President Biden's election. A rise in prices of that magnitude in such a short period of time means that everybody can remember when things were cheaper, not that long ago. going to the supermarket and seeing the Charmin that used to be $5.99 for the 8 pack now costing $9.99 is very obvious to one and all, and contributes to the negative overall sentiment. Even if CPI continues to decline, until price levels start to fall, I do not expect to see positivity return, no matter how many numbers Claudia Sahm publishes!

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You're right, Andy, although she'd deny it, her arguments are politically influenced. I'm not sure if she chose October 2019 as a starting point by design or not, but I'd argue that May 2020 is a better starting point. Maybe she even chose to use the Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker by design... who knows

Agree on the rest of your reply.

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